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造纸行业:如何看待本轮浆系提价

2022-02-27 21:14:14   

  当前时点如何看待本轮造纸提价?

  纸浆:21 年末以来,核心纸浆生产国供应链扰动、运力紧张,短期供需呈现紧平衡状态;叠加俄乌紧张局势支撑大宗商品价格上涨,浆价支撑动力充足,预计短期纸浆将延续高位震荡态势。

  文化纸:21Q4 以来进口扰动走弱、出口渐强,叠加招投标旺季即将来临,供需格局短期向好,新增产能短期冲击有限、库存&开工率处于低位,叠加成本支撑,预期3 月提价落地概率较大。

  白卡纸:21Q4 起白卡行业出口出现边际增量且有持续趋势,叠加库存低位、成本支撑,在行业集中度近90%、龙头提涨意愿强烈背景下,判断3 月提价预期落地。

  特种纸:龙头扩张加速、话语权渐强,价格保持坚挺,成本支撑下判断本轮提价落地概率较大。

  投资建议

  关注格局演绎,优选太阳纸业和仙鹤股份。(1)太阳纸业广西二期项目进展顺利,公司纸浆自给率达55%-60%,能够很好地平抑木浆价格波动影响,期待22年规模、效益双重提升。目前公司文化纸涨价逐步落地;半化学浆成本优势明显,箱板纸盈利表现较好(四季度利润贡献主体),预期22Q1 公司盈利有望筑底回升,至暗时刻已至,左侧价值凸显,持续推荐!(2)仙鹤股份:21Q4 成本挤压利润受损,当前能源成本已有回落、提价预期落地,现已进入修复区间;公司迈入以销定产的高速扩张期、持续丰富产品矩阵,看好市占率持续提升,中期成长性突出,持续推荐!

  风险提示

  竞争加剧、纸浆提涨不及预期、纸价提涨不及预期

  知前沿,问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构,十数年持续深耕产业研究领域,提供深度产业研究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服务、敏锐的市场洞察力,专注于提供完善的产业解决方案,为您的投资决策赋能。

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